As a summary, munitions have a particular chance to drop for a Smoke Bomb with the Perk Munitions. They are in the first set of Tables. The lower Tables display 100 Trials of each Type (Darts, Arrows, Bombs) from data collected in Nightmare & spot-checked in Gold.

One caveat, is there is a possibility in variance in drop rates based on your current inventory. In practicality, I have not seen evidence to suggest that type of pattern. In many games, if my Weaken darts or Black Powder bombs are full, for example, I still see a steady drop rate of them, even if Concussion bombs are empty.

DARTS

TypePoisonHallucinationWeakenAll Darts
Total23667195498
Average2.360.671.954.98
Likelihood47.39%13.45%39.16%
Dart Summary

BOMBS

TypeConcussionFlash/BPAll Bombs
Total241142383
Average2.411.423.83
Likelihood62.92%37.08%
Bomb Summary

ARROWS

TypeArrowFirePierceAll Arrows
Total396142142680
Average3.961.421.426.8
Likelihood58.24%20.88%20.88%
Arrow Summary

Darts in Detail

For the below data, I was running Assassin & dropped 100 Smoke bombs in Nightmare Survival. I had an empty inventory of Darts each time.

For the spread, the key is p = poison dart, w = weaken dart, h = hallucination dart.

MunitionsDARTS(running Assassin)
TrialPoisonHallucinationWeakenSpreadTotal
12111p, 1w 1p, 1h4
24012p, 1w, 2p5
36002p, 2p, 2p6
43011w, 2p, 1p4
56002p, 2p, 2p6
62022p, 1w, 1w4
72121w, 2p, 1w1h5
82121p. 1p, 2w1h5
92011p, 1w, 1p3
104012p, 2p, 1w5
112121w1h, 2p, 1w5
125002p, 2p, 1p5
132122w1h, 1p, 1p5
142111w1h, 1p, 1p4
154111w1h, 2p, 2p6
160142w1h, 1w, 1w5
174012p, 2p, 1w5
184002p, 1p, 1p4
193112p, 1w1h, 1p5
203022w, 2p, 1p5
212121w1h, 1w, 2p5
221021w, 1w, 1p3
233011p, 1w, 2p4
242111p, 1w1h, 1p4
255002p, 2p, 1p5
262021p, 2w, 1p4
275002p, 1p, 2p5
281231p, 1w1h, 2w1h6
292142w1h, 2w, 2p7
302022p, 1w, 1w4
310262w, 2w1h, 2w1h8
322231w1h, 2p, 2w1h7
335002p, 2p, 1p5
340252w1h, 1w, 2w1h7
350052w, 2w, 1w5
362022w, 1p, 1p4
372121p, 2p, 2w1h5
383011w, 2p, 1p4
394012p, 1w, 2p5
403111w1h, 2p, 1p5
410241w1h, 2w, 1w1h6
422022p, 1w, 1w4
431021w, 1p, 1w3
441021w, 1p, 1w3
453121p, 2w1h, 2p6
460151w, 2w1h, 2w6
470142w, 1w, 1w1h5
481232w1h, 1w1h, 1p6
491121w1h, 1w, 1p4
502032w,. 1w, 2p5
511221w1h, 1p, 1w1h5
521142w, 1p, 2w1h6
534012p, 1w, 2p5
545001p, 2p, 2p5
552111p, 1p, 1w1h4
561231p, 2w1h, 1w1h6
572121w1h, 2p, 1w5
582021p, 1p, 2w4
594001p, 1p, 2p4
602132w, 1w1h, 2p6
610152w, 1w1h, 2w6
626002p, 2p, 2p6
631231p, 2w1h, 1w1h6
642131w1h, 2p, 2w6
651231p, 2w1h, 1w1h6
662032p, 1w, 2w5
674012p, 2p, 1w5
681121w, 1p, 1w1h4
694012p, 2p, 1w5
701021p, 1w, 1w3
711032w, 1p, 1w4
721021w, 1w, 1p3
731132w1h, 1w, 1p5
742011p, 1p, 1w3
752121w1h, 2p, 1w5
762232p, 2w1h, 1w1h7
774011p, 1p1w, 2p5
782232p, 1w1h, 2w1h7
791221p, 1w1h, 1w1h5
803012p, 1w, 1p4
812111w1h, 1p, 1p4
823001p, 1p, 1p3
833011p, 1w, 2p4
842122w1h, 1p, 1p5
853112p, 1p, 1w1h5
863111w1h, 2p, 1p5
873122p, 2w1h, 1p6
884022p, 2w, 2p6
891132w, 1p, 1w1h5
906002p, 2p, 2p,6
911232w1h, 1p, 1w1h6
921232w1h, 1w1h, 1p6
934001p, 2p, 1p4
941141p, 2w, 2w1h6
951031p, 2w, 1w4
963022w, 2p, 1p5
974122w1h, 2p, 2p7
982011p, 1p, 1w3
993011w, 2p, 1p4
1002242p, 2w1h, 2w1h8
Total23667195498
Average2.360.671.954.98
Likelihood47.39%13.45%39.16%
TypePoisonHallucinationWeakenTotal
Darts

Bombs in Detail

For the below data, I was running Ronin & dropped 100 Smoke bombs in Nightmare Survival. I had an empty inventory of Bombs each time. I had the Black Powder Perk equipped on my bomb pack.

For the spread, the key is c = concussion bomb, b = black powder/flash bomb.

MunitionsBOMBS(running Ronin)
TrialConcussionBP/FlashSpreadTotal
1311c, 2c, 1b4
2311b, 2c, 1c4
3121b, 1c, 1b3
4211c, 1c, 1b3
5312c, 1c, 1b4
6311b, 1c, 2c4
7311b, 2c, 1c4
8121b, 1c, 1b3
9121b, 1c, 1b3
10311b, 1c, 2c4
11411b, 2c, 2c5
12311b, 2c, 1c4
13401c, 2c, 1c4
14031b, 1b, 1b3
15121b, 1b, 1c3
16221b, 2c, 1b4
17221b, 2c, 1b4
18412c, 1b, 2c5
19312c, 1b, 1c4
20312c, 1b, 1c4
21221b, 2c, 1b4
22222c, 1b, 1b4
23402c, 1c, 1c4
24222c, 1b, 1b4
25222c, 1b, 1b4
26031b, 1b, 1b3
27031b, 1b, 1b3
28412c, 2c, 1b5
29401c, 2c, 1c4
30312c, 1b, 1c4
31211c, 1c, 1b3
32211c, 1c, 1b3
33031b, 1b, 1b3
34311b, 2c, 1c4
35031b, 1b, 1b3
36221b, 1b, 2c4
37311c, 1b, 2c4
38501c, 2c, 2c5
39312c, 1c, 1b4
40222c, 1b, 1b4
41222c, 1b, 1b4
42412c, 1b, 2c5
43412c, 1b, 2c5
44221b, 2c, 1b4
45211c, 1b, 1c3
46311c, 1b, 2c4
47031b, 1b, 1b3
48031b, 1b, 1b3
49411b, 2c, 2c5
50311c, 2c, 1b4
51502c, 1c, 2c5
52031b, 1b, 1b3
53121b, 1c, 1c3
54221b, 2c, 1b4
55121b, 1c, 1b3
56401c, 1c, 2c4
57311c, 1b, 2c4
58411b, 2c, 2c5
59312c, 1b, 1c4
60211b, 1c, 1c3
61121b, 1c, 1b3
62222c, 1b, 1b4
63031b, 1b, 1b3
64501c, 2c, 2c5
65222c, 1b, 1b4
66031b, 1b, 1b3
67412c, 2c, 1b5
68311c, 2c, 1b4
69311c, 1b, 2c4
70401c, 2c, 1c4
71211c, 1c, 1b3
72602c, 2c, 2c6
73311b, 2c, 1c4
74312c, 1c, 1b4
75121b, 1c, 1b3
76031b, 1b, 1b3
77401c, 1c, 2c4
78312c, 1c, 1b4
79211c, 1c, 1b3
80221b, 1b, 2c4
81121c, 1b, 1b3
82121b, 1b, 1c3
83211c, 1b, 1c3
84121c, 1b, 1b3
85412c, 1b, 2c5
86221b, 2c, 1b4
87221b, 2c, 1b4
88121b, 1b, 1c3
89211c, 1b, 1c3
90222c, 1b, 1b4
91221b, 2c, 1b4
92211c, 1c, 1b3
93312c, 1c, 1b4
94311c, 1b, 2c4
95221b, 1b, 2c4
96312c, 1c, 1b4
97502c, 2c, 1c5
98412c, 2c, 1b5
99311c, 1b, 2c4
100311b, 1c, 2c4
Total241142383
Average2.411.423.83
Likelihood62.92%37.08%
TypeConcussionFlash/BPAvg Bombs/Smoke
Bombs

Arrows in Detail

For the below data, I was running Hunter & dropped 100 Smoke bombs in Nightmare Survival. I had an empty inventory of Arrows each time. I had the Piercing Arrow technique equipped.

For the spread, the key is a = regular arrow, f = fire arrow, p = piercing arrow.

MunitionsARROWS(running Hunter)
TrialArrowFire ArrowPiercing ArrowSpreadTotal
15111p1f, 3a, 2a7
25113a, 2a, 1p1f7
34111p1f, 2a, 2a6
43221p1f, 1p1f, 3a7
53221p1f, 3a, 1p1f7
62221p1f, 2a,1p1f6
73221p1f, 3a, 1p1f7
87002a, 3a, 2a7
92221p1f, 2a, 1p1f6
104112a, 2a, 1p1f6
113221p1f, 3a, 1p1f7
125111p1f, 3a, 2a7
135111p1f, 2a, 3a7
143221p1f, 3a, 1p1f7
156111p1f, 3a, 3a8
165113a, 1p1f, 2a7
174111p1f, 2a, 2a6
185112a, 1p1f, 3a7
198002a, 3a, 3a8
203221p1f, 1p1f, 3a7
216002a, 2a, 2a6
223221p1f, 1p1f, 3a7
232221p1f, 2a, 1p1f6
240331p1f, 1p1f, 1p1f6
258003a, 3a, 2a8
265111p1f, 2a, 3a7
272221p1f, 1p1f, 2a6
280331p1f, 1p1f, 1p1f6
292221p1f, 2a, 1p1f6
308002a, 3a, 3a8
310331p1f, 1p1f, 1p1f6
323221p1f, 3a, 1p1f7
335113a, 1p1f, 2a7
344111p1f, 2a, 2a6
350331p1f, 1p1f, 1p1f6
364111p1f, 2a, 2a6
376113a, 1p1f, 3a8
385111p1f, 3a, 2a7
398002a, 3a, 3a8
402221p1f, 2a, 1p1f6
412222a, 1p1f, 1p1f6
423221p1f, 3a, 1p1f7
435113a, 1p1f, 2a7
440331p1f, 1p1f, 1p1f6
456113a, 3a, 1p1f8
463221p1f, 3a, 1p1f7
474111p1f, 2a, 2a6
482221p1f, 2a, 1p1f6
496111p1f, 3a, 3a8
505112a, 1p1f, 3a7
515113a, 2a, 1p1f7
522222a, 1p1f, 1p1f6
536113a, 1p1f, 3a8
545113a, 1p1f, 2a7
555111p1f, 2a, 3a7
568002a, 3a, 3a8
572221p1f, 2a, 1p1f6
586113a, 1p1f, 3a8
593221p1f, 3a, 1p1f7
603221p1f, 3a, 1p1f7
613221p1f, 3a, 1p1f7
620331p1f, 1p1f, 1p1f6
636113a, 3a, 1p1f8
643223a, 1p1f, 1p1f7
656113a, 3a, 1p1f8
664111p1f, 2a, 2a6
673223a, 1p1f, 1p1f7
683223a, 1p1f, 1p1f7
697002a, 2a, 3a7
707002a, 3a, 2a7
716002a, 2a, 2a6
722222a, 1p1f, 1p1f6
735111p1f, 2a, 3a7
745112a, 3a, 1p1f7
759003a, 3a, 3a9
765112a, 3a, 1p1f7
776002a, 2a, 2a6
786113a, 1p1f, 3a8
795112a, 3a, 1p1f7
803221p1f, 1p1f, 3a7
810331p1f, 1p1f, 1p1f6
826111p1f, 3a, 3a8
830331p1f, 1p1f, 1p1f6
846111p1f, 3a, 3a8
852221p1f, 2a, 1p1f6
862222a, 1p1f, 1p1f6
872221p1f, 2a, 1p1f6
882221p1f, 2a, 1p1f6
893223a, 1p1f, 1p1f7
902222a, 1p1f, 1p1f6
910331p1f, 1p1f, 1p1f6
922221p1f, 1p1f, 2a6
935113a, 1p1f, 2a7
947003a, 2a, 2a7
952221p1f, 1p1f, 2a6
968003a, 2a, 3a8
978003a, 2a, 3a8
984111p1f, 2a, 2a6
992221p1f, 2a, 1p1f6
1000331p1f, 1p1f, 1p1f6
Total396142142680
Average3.961.421.426.8
Likelihood58.24%20.88%20.88%
TypeArrowFirePierceAvg Arrows/Smoke
Arrows